Fed & Interest RatesComing soon
FOMC Decision
Affects mortgage and auto loan costs
Jul 30
Employment & JobsComing soon
Jobs Report
Affects employment trends and Fed rate decisions
~Aug 12
Inflation ReportsComing soon
CPI Report
May impact grocery and rent prices
~Aug 12
Inflation ReportsHIGH IMPACT
Consumer Prices Fell in June for the First Time This Year
▼ -0.4%CPI YoY
June 2026 · prev +0.5%
The Fed Read
Consumer prices dropped 0.4% in June after rising 0.5% the month before — the first monthly decline this year. A reversal this sharp strengthens the case for the Fed to hold rates steady rather than push them higher.
For You
A drop in consumer prices means your grocery bill and gas pump receipts got a small breather this month. Your HYSA yield stays intact for now, since the Fed held rates at 3.63% and a cooling price environment gives it less reason to raise them.
“Historically when consumer prices fall after months of increases, the Fed tends to hold rates steady and wait for confirmation before acting.”
Published Jul 15, 2026 · 4 min read
Employment & JobsHIGH IMPACT
Hiring Slows Sharply as Workers Leave the Labor Force
▼ 4.2%Unemployment Rate
June 2026 · prev 4.3%
The Fed Read
The unemployment rate dipped to 4.2%, but only because fewer people were looking for work — payrolls added just 57,000 jobs, the weakest gain in months. A shrinking labor force masking sluggish hiring reinforces the case for the Fed to hold rates steady rather than raise them further.
For You
With hiring this slow, job seekers face a tighter market — fewer openings and longer searches. Your HYSA yield stays intact for now since the Fed has little reason to cut rates when the picture is this mixed.
“Historically when payroll gains slow for several months in a row, the Fed tends to lean toward cutting rates.”
Published Jul 3, 2026 · 4 min read
Fed & Interest RatesHIGH IMPACT
Fed Holds Rates Steady as Inflation and Jobs Stay Mixed
3.63%Fed Funds Rate
June 2026 · prev 3.63%
The Fed Read
The Fed held rates at 3.63% for the second straight month, keeping its foot on the brake while inflation remains sticky and unemployment sits at 4.3%. Steady jobs and a rising CPI reinforce the Fed's wait-and-see stance and stall the rate-cut conversation.
For You
Your mortgage rate, auto loan rate, and credit card APR are all tied to where the Fed sets rates — and right now, nothing changed. Your HYSA yield stays put too, earning roughly what it did last month, as long as the Fed keeps holding.
“Historically when the Fed holds rates steady for several months, borrowing costs tend to plateau and markets often drift sideways.”
Published Jul 2, 2026 · 4 min read
Growth & GDPMEDIUM IMPACT
Stocks Surge as S&P 500 Gains Nearly 5% in Three Sessions
Not yet releasedGDP QoQ (annualized)
Q2 2026 (advance estimate pending) · prev Not yet released
The Fed Read
The S&P 500's sharp three-day rally reflects traders repricing growth expectations upward, which reinforces the Fed's current hold on rates at 3.63%. Stronger equity markets and steady Treasury yields leave little pressure on the Fed to change course in either direction.
For You
A 5% jump in stocks over three trading days means your 401(k) balance tied to index funds got a visible bump this week. Your HYSA yield stays anchored to the Fed's current rate, which hasn't moved — so cash savings earn the same while equity holdings grow.
“Historically when stocks rally sharply over several days without a bond selloff, the market often signals confidence in steady growth.”
Published Jun 16, 2026 · 4 min read
Growth & GDPMEDIUM IMPACT
Stocks Surge Nearly 2% as Markets Recover From Prior Selloff
Not yet released for Q2 2026GDP QoQ (annualized)
Q1 2026 (latest available) · prev Not available in brief
The Fed Read
The S&P 500 reclaimed 1.8% in a single session, but the bounce followed a 1.6% drop the day before — leaving the growth picture roughly where it started the week. With the fed funds rate at 3.63%, the Fed's current stance appears unchanged by a volatile but directionless two-day swing.
For You
Big daily swings in your 401(k) balance can feel alarming, but this session essentially reversed the prior day's loss. Your HYSA yield stays tied to the fed funds rate at 3.63%, which didn't budge during this back-and-forth.
“Historically when stocks drop sharply and bounce back the next day, the reversal often reflects short-term trading rather than a change in economic direction.”
Published Jun 12, 2026 · 4 min read
Growth & GDPHIGH IMPACT
Stocks Drop Sharply as Growth Fears Rattle Wall Street
Not yet released for Q2 2026GDP QoQ (annualized)
Q1 2026 (latest available) · prev Not available in brief
The Fed Read
A 1.6% single-day sell-off in the S&P 500 reflects growing anxiety about the pace of economic growth, which reinforces the Fed's case for keeping rates where they are rather than raising them further. With the fed funds rate at 3.63%, the market reaction signals that traders see slowing growth as the bigger risk right now.
For You
When stocks fall this fast, your 401(k) balance takes a visible hit — especially if you're heavily allocated to U.S. equities. Your HYSA yield stays unchanged for now, since the Fed hasn't shifted rates, but days like this are a reminder that cash and bonds play a different role than stocks in a portfolio.
“Historically when stocks sell off sharply on growth fears, the Fed tends to pause rate changes and wait for clearer economic data.”
Published Jun 11, 2026 · 4 min read
Inflation ReportsHIGH IMPACT
Inflation Slows to 0.5% Monthly but Remains Elevated
▼ 0.5% MoMCPI YoY
May 2026 · prev 0.6% MoM
The Fed Read
Monthly inflation slowed from 0.6% to 0.5%, a step in the right direction after a 0.9% spike in March. The cooling trend reinforces the Fed's case for holding rates steady rather than raising them further, though three months of elevated readings keep the conversation about additional cuts stalled.
For You
Grocery and gas prices are still climbing — just not as fast as they were two months ago. Your HYSA yield stays intact for now since the Fed has little reason to cut rates while monthly inflation prints remain this hot.
“Historically when monthly inflation slows for several readings in a row, the Fed tends to grow more confident about holding rates steady.”
Published Jun 11, 2026 · 4 min read
Employment & JobsHIGH IMPACT
Steady Job Growth Keeps the Fed in a Holding Pattern
4.3%Unemployment Rate
May 2026 · prev 4.3%
The Fed Read
Unemployment held flat at 4.3% for the second month in a row while hiring stayed solid at 172,000 jobs — neither hot enough to worry about overheating nor weak enough to force action. That reinforces the Fed's current hold on rates, with no new pressure to move in either direction.
For You
With the labor market treading water, your mortgage rate and auto loan rate are unlikely to shift much from where they sit today. Your HYSA yield stays put too, since the Fed has little reason to change course based on this report.
“Historically when job growth gradually slows without unemployment spiking, the Fed tends to hold rates steady and wait for clearer evidence.”
Published Jun 8, 2026 · 4 min read
Fed & Interest RatesHIGH IMPACT
Fed Holds Rates Steady as Inflation and Jobs Stay Flat
▼ 3.63%Fed Funds Rate
May 2026 · prev 3.64%
The Fed Read
The Fed kept rates effectively unchanged at 3.63%, holding steady for a third straight month while unemployment sits at 4.3% and consumer prices ticked higher. Flat labor data and a fresh CPI increase reinforce that the Fed has little reason to move in either direction right now.
For You
Your mortgage rate, credit card APR, and auto loan rate are all tied to the Fed's benchmark — and none of them are going anywhere fast with the Fed on pause. HYSA yields stay parked near current levels too, so cash in savings accounts keeps earning at roughly the same rate for now.
“Historically when the Fed holds rates steady for several months, it often signals a wait-and-see period before the next move in either direction.”
Published Jun 2, 2026 · 4 min read
Inflation ReportsHIGH IMPACT
Consumer Prices Jumped Again as Inflation Stays Elevated
▲ 4.8%CPI YoY
April 2026 · prev 4.5%
The Fed Read
Consumer prices rose 0.6% in April, the second straight month of above-average gains — reinforcing that inflation is still running too hot for the Fed to consider lowering rates. Sticky price growth stalls any rate-cut conversation and keeps the Fed firmly in hold mode.
For You
Grocery and energy bills are climbing again, and this kind of inflation pressure means your mortgage rate and auto loan rates stay elevated longer. Your HYSA yield holds steady for now since the Fed has no reason to cut, but everyday costs are eating into what that extra interest earns.
“Historically when inflation reaccelerates over several months, the Fed tends to hold rates steady longer than markets expect.”
Published May 13, 2026 · 4 min read
Employment & JobsHIGH IMPACT
Hiring Slows to 115,000 as Labor Force Participation Keeps Sliding
4.3%Unemployment Rate
April 2026 · prev 4.3%
The Fed Read
The unemployment rate held flat at 4.3%, but hiring slowed sharply to just 115,000 jobs — well below the pace needed to keep up with population growth. A cooling labor market alongside falling participation reinforces the Fed's case for holding rates steady rather than raising them further.
For You
A weaker job market means less pressure on the Fed to keep rates high, which tends to pull mortgage rates and auto loan rates lower over time. If you're job-hunting, fewer openings and slower hiring make the search harder than it was a year ago.
“Historically when labor force participation falls for several months, the unemployment rate can mask a weakening job market that the Fed tends to watch closely.”
Published May 11, 2026 · 4 min read
Fed & Interest RatesHIGH IMPACT
Fed Holds Rates Steady as Inflation and Jobs Stay Mixed
3.64%Fed Funds Rate
April 2026 · prev 3.64%
The Fed Read
The Fed held the funds rate at 3.64% for the third straight month, keeping its foot off the gas in both directions. With unemployment at 4.3% and consumer prices still climbing, the data reinforces the Fed's wait-and-see stance rather than tilting toward cuts or hikes.
For You
Your mortgage rate, credit card APR, and auto loan rate are all parked right where they've been — steady Fed policy means borrowing costs aren't moving much either way. Your HYSA yield stays intact for now, since the Fed isn't cutting rates to bring it down.
“Historically when the Fed holds rates steady for several months, it often means the next move depends on which side of its mandate — jobs or prices — breaks first.”
Published May 4, 2026 · 4 min read
Employment & JobsMEDIUM IMPACT
Jobless Claims Plunge to 189K Signaling Tight Labor Market
▼ 4.3%Unemployment Rate
March 2026 · prev 4.4%
The Fed Read
Initial claims fell sharply to 189,000, and the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.3% — both signs that the labor market remains firm. That strength stalls the Fed's path toward further rate cuts, since fewer layoffs give the committee less urgency to act.
For You
A tight job market keeps borrowing costs where they are. Your mortgage rate and auto loan rate are unlikely to drop much while the Fed sees this kind of hiring resilience, but your HYSA yield stays intact longer too.
“Historically when jobless claims stay low for an extended stretch, the Fed tends to hold rates steady rather than cut.”
Published May 1, 2026 · 4 min read
Inflation ReportsHIGH IMPACT
Consumer Prices Jumped in March as Inflation Accelerated
330.293
CPI Index Level
A sharp price surge in March reignited inflation concerns across markets.
“Inflation rises → Fed holds or raises rates → Borrowing costs stay elevated → Stock valuations often face pressure”
Published Apr 13, 2026 · 4 min read
Growth & GDPHIGH IMPACT
Stocks Surged 2.5% as Investors Piled Back Into Equities
6,782.81
S&P 500 Close
A broad stock rally pushed the S&P 500 up 2.5% in one session.
“Stocks surge → Investors reassess growth outlook → Bond market confirms or contradicts → Follow-through days often matter more than the initial spike”
Published Apr 9, 2026 · 4 min read
Employment & JobsHIGH IMPACT
Steady Hiring and Lower Unemployment Ease Labor Market Fears
▲ +178,000
Nonfarm Payrolls
A rebound in hiring pushed the unemployment rate back down to 4.3%.
“Jobs rise → recession fears ease → rate cut pressure fades → bond yields tend to hold steady”
Published Apr 6, 2026 · 4 min read
Fed & Interest RatesHIGH IMPACT
Fed Holds Rates Steady as Unemployment Edges Higher
3.64%
Federal Funds Effective Rate
The Fed held rates steady despite rising unemployment and sticky inflation.
“Inflation stays sticky → Fed holds rates steady → Borrowing costs tend to plateau → Markets often trade sideways”
Published Apr 3, 2026 · 4 min read
Fed & Interest RatesHIGH IMPACT
Fed Holds Rates at 3.64%, Pauses After Five Straight Months of Cuts
3.64%Fed Funds Rate
February 2026 · prev 3.64% (January 2026)
The Fed Read
The Fed kept its benchmark rate at 3.64% in February, hitting pause after cutting rates five months in a row. Unemployment rising to 4.4% tilts the case toward cutting rates, but inflation still running positive shifts the Fed toward waiting for more data first.
For You
HYSA yields are likely to stay flat because the Fed isn't cutting rates, so banks have no pressure to raise what they pay savers. Mortgage rates are also holding steady because lenders' own borrowing costs won't drop until the Fed starts cutting again.
“Historically when the Fed paused after a string of cuts, the next move often depended on which changed more clearly — jobs or inflation.”
Published Mar 19, 2026 · 4 min read
Inflation ReportsHIGH IMPACT
Consumer Prices Rose 0.3% in February, Holding the Same Pace as Most of 2025
2.66%CPI YoY
February 2026 · prev 2.83%
The Fed Read
Consumer prices rose 0.3% in February, continuing the same steady pace seen throughout most of 2025 with no sign of cooling. That persistent inflation strengthens the case for the Fed to keep rates right where they are at 3.64%.
For You
Mortgage rates are staying flat because the Fed is holding its benchmark rate steady while prices keep rising at this pace. HYSA yields are also holding flat because banks have no reason to change what they pay savers when the Fed isn't moving rates.
“Historically when inflation stays at a steady pace for many months, the Fed tends to hold rates unchanged.”
Published Mar 12, 2026 · 4 min read
Employment & JobsMEDIUM IMPACT
Unemployment Rose to 4.4% in February as Jobless Claims Held at 213,000
4.4%Unemployment Rate
February 2026 · prev 4.3%
The Fed Read
Only 213,000 workers filed for unemployment benefits last week, and that number has barely moved in two weeks — layoffs remain low by historical standards. A steady job market with few layoffs gives the Fed less reason to cut rates right now.
For You
HYSA yields are likely to stay flat because the Fed has little reason to cut rates when layoffs are this low. Mortgage rates could also stay where they are because lenders follow the Fed's lead, and the Fed tends to hold steady when the job market looks stable.
“Historically when jobless claims stay low for several weeks, the Fed tends to hold rates steady rather than cut them.”
Published Mar 6, 2026 · 4 min read
Employment & JobsHIGH IMPACT
U.S. Economy Lost 92,000 Jobs in February, Unemployment Rose to 4.4%
4.4%Unemployment Rate
February 2026 · prev 4.3% in January 2026
The Fed Read
The U.S. economy lost 92,000 jobs in February and unemployment climbed to 4.4%, both signs that the job market is getting weaker. That strengthens the case for the Fed to cut rates, though wages are still rising, which gives them reason to hold steady for now.
For You
HYSA yields may drop because banks tend to follow the Fed's lead, and a weaker job market gives the Fed more reason to cut rates. Mortgage rates could also edge down for the same reason, since lenders price those loans based on where rates are expected to go.
“Historically when job losses and rising unemployment appeared together, the Fed tended to move toward cutting rates.”
Published Mar 6, 2026 · 4 min read
Inflation ReportsMEDIUM IMPACT
Annual Inflation Rate Fell to 2.83% in January, Down From 3.00% in December
2.83%CPI YoY
January 2026 · prev 3.00%
The Fed Read
Consumer prices rose just 0.2% in January, and the annual inflation rate dropped to 2.83% from 3.00% the month before. That gives the Fed less reason to raise rates, and strengthens the case for holding them steady or cutting them later.
For You
HYSA yields are likely to stay flat because the Fed has little reason to move rates when inflation is this calm. Mortgage rates could drift down over time because lower inflation reduces pressure on the Fed to keep its rate high.
“Historically when inflation stays mild for several months in a row, the Fed tends to hold rates steady or shift toward cutting them.”
Published Feb 12, 2026 · 4 min read
Inflation ReportsHIGH IMPACT
Consumer Prices Rose 3.00% Year-Over-Year in December, Matching November's Pace
3.00%CPI YoY
December 2025 · prev 2.99%
The Fed Read
PCE inflation jumped 0.4% in December, the biggest monthly increase in nearly a year, after several quieter months at 0.2%. That gives the Fed a reason to hold rates where they are rather than cut them.
For You
Mortgage rates are likely to stay elevated because the Fed has less reason to cut rates when inflation speeds back up. HYSA yields may also hold steady for now, since banks tend to keep savings rates high when the Fed isn't cutting.
“Historically when inflation picked back up after a calm stretch, the Fed tended to hold rates steady longer than many expected.”
Published Jan 14, 2026 · 4 min read
Employment & JobsHIGH IMPACT
U.S. Lost 17,000 Jobs in December, Unemployment Fell to 4.4%
4.4%Unemployment Rate
December 2025 · prev 4.5%
The Fed Read
The U.S. economy lost 17,000 jobs in December, the third month of job losses in the past five. That kind of weak jobs data strengthens the case for the Fed cutting rates rather than holding them steady.
For You
High-yield savings account (HYSA) yields could drift lower because when the Fed cuts its benchmark rate, banks typically pay less interest on deposits. Mortgage rates could also edge down because lenders set them partly based on where they expect the Fed's rate to go.
“Historically when job losses stretch across several months, the Fed tends to cut rates to support hiring.”
Published Jan 9, 2026 · 4 min read
Growth & GDPHIGH IMPACT
U.S. Economy Grew Just 0.4% in Q3 2025, Down From 1.1% the Quarter Before
▲ +0.4%GDP QoQ (annualized)
Q3 2025 · prev +1.1% (Q2 2025)
The Fed Read
The economy grew just 0.4% last quarter, down from 1.1% the quarter before, and unemployment climbed to 4.4%. Slower growth and rising joblessness together shift the conversation away from raising rates and toward holding them steady.
For You
HYSA yields may flatten or slip because banks tend to stop raising what they pay savers when the Fed stops raising rates. Mortgage rates are less likely to climb further because slower economic growth reduces pressure on the Fed to push borrowing costs higher.
“Historically when growth slowed and unemployment rose at the same time, the Fed tended to pause rather than keep raising rates.”
Published Oct 30, 2025 · 4 min read
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